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**June, Too Soon** - Extended 2005 Hurricane Forecast
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Page 1 of 1Total of 1 messages
Posted by:Feb 7th 2005, 05:26:43 pm
Fig Tree News TeamDr. Gray has released his first forecast for the 2005 Hurricane Season. Generally we foresee a lightly above-average hurricane season for the Atlantic basin in 2005. Also, an above-average probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is anticipated. We do not, however, expect anything close to the U.S. landfalling hurricane activity of 2004.

ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2005
(http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2004/dec2004/)

(Forecast parameter and 1950-2000 Climatology in parentheses)

Named Storms (9.6 avg) ................................. 11
Named Storm Days (49.1 avg) ......................... 55
Hurricanes (5.9 avg) ....................................... 6
Hurricane Days (24.5 avg)................................ 25
Intense Hurricanes (2.3 avg) ............................ 3
Intense Hurricane Days (5.0 avg) ...................... 6
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (100% avg) ........... 115


PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-5) HURRICANE
MAKING LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS:

1) Entire U.S. Coastline - 69% (average for he last century is 52%)
2) U.S. East Coast including Peninsula Florida - 49% (average for last century is 31%)
3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Peninsula westward to Brownsville, TX - 39% (average for last century is 30%)
4) Above-average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean


EL NINO

We do not anticipate a significant El Nino event that would bring about a large reduction in Atlantic Basin hurricane activity in 2005 at this time. We expect that there will be a continued warm water temperatures near the dateline in the equatorial Pacific and some slight warming in the other El Nino regions. Except for very strong El Nino events such as 1957, 1972, 1982-83, 1986-87 and 1997 El Nino's do not necessarily dominate Atlantic Basin Hurricane activity.

Remember little skill has been shown in long-range El Nino prediction, and there is a wide range of current El Nino predictions for August-October 2005. What this means to us is we will have to wait and see...

For more information on El Nino go to http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/ENSO/ or http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/.

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