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Over and out: Storm Season 2007 ;-)
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Page 1 of 1Total of 1 messages
Posted by:Nov 29th 2007, 02:28:38 pm
Fig Tree News TeamWith the hurricane season now over one cannot help but look back at the pre-season
predictions that the U.S.-based National
Hurricane Centre made and wonder. For the
second year in a row the NHC has been
wrong in their expectations of
higher-than-normal hurricane activity.

The 2006 predictions were off by
almost 50% and this year's original
expectations were 18% higher than reality on
total storms and 60% off on major
systems. Some scientists attributed
higher activity to human-induced
global warming, although the
meterological guru William Gray sees it
otherwise. "Although global surface
temperatures have increased over the last
century and over the last 30 years,
there is no reliable data available
to indicate increased hurricane frequency or
intensity in any of the globe's seven
tropical basins, except for the
Atlantic over the past 12 years," Gray said
[emphasis added].

While Gray can't blame the populists'
view of global warming for the real increase
he does see the recent bump in hurricane
activity as being part of a natural cycle
that could persist for a couple of
decades.

Of course, it doesn't take a lot
of storms to do damage--just
one storm making a direct
hit on a highly populated area is enough.
Tropical Storm Noel was minimal by any
standard yet hundreds of Family
Island residents are still mopping up their
lives and trying to restore order
after Noel left them under water.

But an increased quantity in storms
does increase probability of
impact and that is something we do need to be
concerned about. And predictions, while
interesting to pay attention to, mean
very little. We still should make
our own pre-hurricane season preparations
regardless of how many storms the
“experts” think we might
experience. We just pray next year is as
quiet as the past two years.
(Information courtesy of Grand Bahama Info Weekly.)

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