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Coconut Notes
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Today's weather: Tropical depression just south of Jamaica
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Page 1 of 1Total of 4 messages
Posted by:Sep 19th 2002, 05:03:45 pm
KimberlyNow it's HURRICANE Isidore:
HURRICANE ISIDORE ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 19 2002

...ISIDORE STRENGTHENING AS IT HEADS FOR CUBA...BECOMES THE SECOND
HURRICANE OF THE 2002 SEASON...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND INCLUDING
THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

AT 5 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WATCHES
AND WARNINGS EAST OF MATANZAS. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN CUBA PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE
LA HABANA...LA HABANA AND PINAR DEL RIO...INCLUDING THE ISLE OF
YOUTH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT ISIDORE HAS STRENGTHENED AND IS NOW A HURRICANE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISIDORE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.0 WEST OR ABOUT 95
MILES...150 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

ISIDORE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH
...13 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISIDORE WILL PASS
OVER OR VERY NEAR THE ISLE OF YOUTH EARLY FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE CENTER
REACHES THE COAST OF CUBA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.

EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS...UP T0 20 TO 30 INCHES...CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE
DAYS.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...20.6 N... 82.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 984 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
Posted by:Sep 19th 2002, 08:47:32 am
chapelBarometer Bob's local weather update [bluedolphin@oii.net]
THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 19TH

Isidore will be approaching the S coast of W’ern Cuba today with winds not as high as had been expected. I’ll give you more on this later. We have several features affecting us today including a dissipating front to our NE with a low developing on the E’ern reaches of the front. We did get over 2 ½ inches of rain yesterday and last night in two showers. Thanks for the small stuff.

Today, the NWS is calling for NE to E winds at 10 to 15 knots with 3 to 4 foot seas. I believe the winds will be more to the SE than this. The satellite image shows only light clouds in our area mostly to our S but do expect a passing shower. Other than that, the skies should be only partly cloudy with a high temperature of around 86 degs. The barometer is 1015.3 mb. or 29.98 in. and falling slightly. We had a high tide at 7:41 which was 2.8 feet above datum. Low tide will be at 1:39, 0.4 feet above datum followed by a high tide at 8 PM, 3 feet above datum.

Tonight and Friday, winds should be E at 10 to 15 knots with 4 foot seas. The low temperature will be in the high 70’s.

Not much will change on Friday except the wind will become more SE with a little lower seas. These conditions will generally stay the same through Monday as long as Isidore behaves himself.

I am going to skip most of the FL coastal waters forecast where winds will be higher than here and seas an uncomfortable 6 to 7 feet through Monday and so much of this depends on Isidore’s track.

Isidore, at 5 AM, was near 20.0N 80.8W, blowing 65 mph and moving W-NW at 12 mph. He is likely to become a hurricane before reaching W’ern Cuba with continued strengthening over the Gulf of Mexico. I could give you many speculations on Isidore but they are still just speculations. I will give you two beliefs, first, Isidore will become a major hurricane while in the Gulf and second, he is most likely to reach landfall along the W’ern Gulf coast. I will past more onto you as the NHC becomes surer of Isidore’s future.

Courtesy of the Abaco Cruiser’s Net
On daily at 8:15 AM on VHF CH 68
Posted by:Sep 19th 2002, 08:04:27 am
coconutH2OTROPICAL STORM ISIDORE ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU SEP 19 2002

...ISIDORE STRENGTHENING...HEADED FOR WESTERN CUBA....

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA FOR
THE PROVINCES OF CIENFUEGOS...VILLA CLARA...MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE LA
HABANA...LA HABANA AND PINAR DEL RIO...INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SANCTI-SPIRITUS AND CIEGO DE
AVILA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
ISIDORE WAS LOCATED BY A HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 20.0
NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.8 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES...105 KM...NORTHEAST OF
GRAND CAYMAN.

ISIDORE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH
...19 KM/HR...AND A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT
THE SAME SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK...ISIDORE WILL BE APPROACHING WESTERN CUBA LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND ISIDORE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
...185 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED THAT THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS NOW 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

RAINS ARE DIMINISHING OVER JAMAICA....HOWEVER HEAVY RAINS SHOULD
SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA TODAY...AND OUTER
RAINBANDS COULD AFFECT THE FLORIDA KEYS LATE TODAY.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...20.0 N... 80.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 990 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER PASCH
Posted by:Sep 18th 2002, 05:14:42 pm
chapelHurricane watch for Cuba, now:
TROPICAL STORM ISIDORE ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED SEP 18 2002

...ISIDORE GATHERING STRENGTH IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN
CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCES OF VILLA CLARA AND CIENFUEGOS
WESTWARD...AND INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH. THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR
CUBA WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WARNING THIS
EVENING.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISIDORE WAS
RELOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.8 WEST OR ABOUT
165 MILES ...270 KM...EAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

THE CENTER OF ISIDORE HAS REFORMED NORTH OF ITS PREVIOUS POSITION.
ISIDORE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH ...15 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EVEN
THOUGH THE CENTER OF ISIDORE WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM JAMAICA THIS
EVENING...CONDITIONS THERE WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE SINCE MOST OF
THE HEAVY RAINS AND WINDS ARE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY...AND ISIDORE IS EXPECTED
TO BE CLOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
...110 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
WAS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.

HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER JAMAICA DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES. HEAVY RAINS ARE NOW MOVING INTO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...19.0 N... 78.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

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