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Hurricane Dean Updates
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Posted by:Aug 20th 2007, 08:34:31 pm
Fig Tree News TeamTourists flee in Mexico from huge hurricane By Catherine Bremer
Mon Aug 20, 4:51 PM ET



Thousands of tourists headed for makeshift shelters on Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Monday to escape from Hurricane Dean, a potentially catastrophic storm which killed nine people in the Caribbean.

Police ordered vehicles off the road and banned the sale of alcohol on the "Mayan Riviera," a strip of beach resorts with bright white sands that is yet to fully recover from the devastation of Hurricane Wilma in 2005.

With winds near 150 mph (240 kph), Dean was likely to become a rare Category 5 -- the strongest type of hurricane -- before making landfall near Mexico's border with Belize early on Tuesday, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.

The approaching storm brought back nightmare memories of Wilma, the strongest Atlantic storm recorded, which wrecked Cancun and other beach resorts. It washed away whole beaches, killed seven people and caused $2.6 billion in damages.

"A Category 5 is horrible. We've been through that," said . Marcos Ruiz, 31, a tourism ministry official in the resort of Tulum, just north of Dean's path. "The wind is so strong you can't breathe."

Popular with European tourists, Tulum was particularly in danger as many of its arty hotels and cabins are built next to the sea.

Thousands of tourists and local residents were told to go to 2,000 shelters across the Yucatan Peninsula,

"I hate the waiting," said Scottish film producer Abbie Harper, 27, one of 150 tourists in Tulum who were taken further inland to a cramped hotel without air conditioning.

Belize, a former British colony that is home to some 250,000 people and a famous barrier reef, was also in Dean's sights. Prime Minister Said Musa went into an emergency cabinet meeting to discuss contingency plans and heavy rain began to fall in Belize City.

SPACE SHUTTLE

Dean swiped Jamaica at the weekend with howling winds and pelting rain. Roads were blocked by toppled trees and power poles. A man had been reported missing in Jamaica but police said they could not confirm any casualties

The U.S. space shuttle Endeavour is to return to Earth from the International Space Station a day early in case the storm forces NASA to evacuate its Houston center.

Some 70,000 tourists have fled Cancun and the nearby area in recent days but the resort, whose five-star hotels were gutted by ferocious wind and waves in 2005, was not forecast to take a major hit this time around.

The few tourists still left there wandered through stores picking up food and drink.

The windows of shops and restaurants on the vacation island of Cozumel, a major scuba diving center, were boarded up as winds slowly began to get stronger.

Poor local residents with badly built homes are often the worst hit by hurricanes in Mexico.

"Let's see if the house can stand it. If not, we'll go to the shelter," said Luisa Villafana, 27, an office cleaner who shares a thatched-roof home with eight other people near the town of Felipe Carrillo Puerto.

Category 5 hurricanes are rare but in 2005 there were four, including Katrina which devastated New Orleans. The number of high power storms is reinforcing research that suggests global warming may increase the strength of tropical cyclones.

The latest computer tracking models forecast the hurricane would spare the U.S. Gulf Coast but cross the Yucatan to the Campeche Sound in the southern Gulf of Mexico and then hit central Mexico.

Mexico is closing and evacuating all of its 407 oil and gas wells in the Campeche Sound due to Hurricane Dean, meaning lost production of 2.65 million barrels of crude per day.

Four people were killed by the storm in Haiti, U.N. officials said, putting the number killed at nine since Dean roared into the Caribbean.

Dean was on Monday passing more than 125 miles to the southwest of the tiny Cayman Islands, a British territory in the western Caribbean.

Posted by:Aug 20th 2007, 01:36:08 pm
Fig Tree News TeamHowls over hurricane insurance Mon Aug 20, 4:00 AM ET



Right about now, when hurricanes such as Dean storm through the Caribbean, US coastal areas are reminded how vulnerable seaside building can be, and how costly if destroyed. And yet, development in these areas continues, hurricane or no hurricane.

One reason is the lure of the water and warmer climes. That's next to impossible to turn off. But a more controllable factor is government interference with the market price of hurricane insurance. This manipulation can be corrected, though the trend is not very encouraging.

Insurance rates are based on risk, and high rates act as a brake on risky behavior. Since hurricane Katrina, premiums in many coastal areas have more than doubled. Those rates are based on forecasts of more intense and frequent hurricanes, and on projected losses from growing development, which is becoming ever more luxurious and costly to replace.

The premium increases, not surprisingly, have created a backlash among property owners. They have revolted, if not with beach rakes and umbrella stakes, then with demands that state governments which regulate private insurers do something. Governments, though, are loath to give up revenues generated by coastal development and are mostly responding by taking on more of the burden.

There are two types of hurricane insurance. Protection from wind has generally been the domain of private insurers. The federal government provides protection from floods when private insurers don't which is most of the time.

So far, the Feds have not been able to run a financially sound flood protection program. It's more than $20 billion in debt, partly because its premium structure is not sufficiently priced for risk. The same properties flood multiple times, and are repaired multiple times. But what incentive do owners have to move or retrofit (build on stilts, for instance) when they enjoy taxpayer subsidized premiums?

There's a message here for the states tackling the wind side, if only more of them would listen. As private insurers from Texas to Massachusetts find themselves overexposed, they are raising rates or fleeing. States are stepping in by expanding state-backed "insurers of last resort."

In the last five years, the liability of the Massachusetts program has more than quadrupled. In Texas, it's almost tripled. It's up sixfold in Rhode Island, and fourfold in North Carolina.

Florida, the most hurricane- prone state, is of particular concern. Its state-backed insurer has become the largest property insurer in the state by keeping rates below market. It's expanding into commercial properties and rolling back planned rate hikes. Meanwhile, lawmakers significantly raised the limit on claims to the state catastrophe fund which insures insurers to $30 billion. Should a "big one" hit, the state would be in financial trouble.

Florida wants Congress to create a national catastrophe fund that also covers wind. But the idea has problems. One is willingness of states to share Florida's outsized risk.

It's not possible for the whole Sunshine State to move to safer ground. But in moving away from market pricing and private insurers, Florida and other states give up incentives for safer building and less building in hazardous areas.
Posted by:Aug 20th 2007, 07:16:40 am
Fig Tree News TeamFrom the Daily Gleaner:

EDITORIAL - On hurricane watch
published: Sunday | August 19, 2007

As we went to press last night, there remained every expectation that Jamaica would suffer a devastating blow from Hurricane Dean. Whichever path it takes today, whether a direct hit on the island as forecast by meteorologists, or veering slightly to the north or south, the country is still likely to suffer significant damage to its physical infrastructure. Our experience with recent heavy rains indicates that many of the road structures are not able to withstand sustained rain erosion for several hours, let alone two days. The full impact on individuals' lives and the country as a whole will take some time to assess.

Some of the damage will be mitigated by the preparations that were done. Yet preparations have to be done at the individual and national level. There are some things that householders can do, and others that only a government can. The cleaning of drains and gullies, for example, is the responsibility of central and local government agencies. Individuals, however, set themselves up to experience untold suffering and damage when they dump rubbish and other debris into waterways. Thankfully, since our experience with Hurricane Gilbert in September 1988, we have managed to keep most aspects of the island's emergency response agencies sufficiently equipped to allow them to render aid as required. Yet, even in the best of planned scenarios, there will be situations that put the capabilities of these agencies to the test.

Many people were already under pressure to make adequate preparations, given their financial challenges. The state apparatus will also be under strain, but hopefully, we will riseto the challenges to help ourselves to recover as quickly as possible.

The immediate post-hurricane period will also throw up different challenges. There will be complaints of slow or inadequate response and of areas being inaccessible. Wit stress, there will be even more manifestations of short temper and anger. We urge all our fellow citizens to exercise due care, caution and patience in this time of national challenge.

With this hurricane coming at th of a general election campaign, the temptation to grandstanding, points scoring and exploiting the misery of people for political gain will be hard to resist among the more rabidly partisan among us. We appeal to our politicians to let good sense prevail and to do what they can for the national good, simply because it is the right and decent thing to do.

We have demonstrated in the past that we are a resilient people and that in times of crises we can join together to accomplish desired goals. Now more than ever is a time to be good neighbours, for when the storm is past, we will still have to live together.

Our prayer is that we will be spared the worst.
Posted by:Aug 18th 2007, 03:04:46 pm
KimberlySt. Lucia was hammered on Friday, but here's an overview of how the different countries are battening down their hatches in advance of Hurricane Dean.

Report #2
By CDERA
Fri, 17 Aug 2007

Bridgetown, Barbados, Friday August 17, 2007 ( CDERA) - The Event: Hurricane Dean, a Category two hurricane on the
Saffir/Simpson scale began affecting islands in the Lesser Antilles from the evening of Thursday August 16. Hurricane
warnings were issued on for Saint. Lucia and Dominica and Tropical Storm warnings for Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda,
Barbados, British Virgin Islands, Grenada and its dependencies, Montserrat, St. Kitts/Nevis and St. Vincent and the
Grenadines.

During the passage of Dean early August 17, maximum sustained winds were near 100 mph (169 km/hr) with higher gusts.
Stronger winds were likely over elevated terrain near the path of the centre. Hurricane force winds extended outward up
to 25 miles (35 km) from the centre and Tropical force winds extended outward up to 140 miles (220) km) and Dean was
moving towards the west near 23mph (37km/hr).

Tropical Storm warnings were discontinued for Barbados and St. Vincent and the Grenadines

Initial reports from the national disaster offices of the impacted islands generally indicated minimal damage. The
picture in Saint Lucia and Dominica is still emerging.

The Prognosis: As of 1:45pm (Eastern Caribbean Time) Hurricane Dean was upgraded to the first Major Hurricane of the
2007 season with maximum sustained winds of 125mph. Dean is moving towards the west near 22mph (35km/hr) and this
general motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed during the next 24 hours. This motion should
take the centre of Dean across the Caribbean Sea today and further away from the Lesser Antilles.

PRELIMINARY REPORTS FROM THE NATIONAL DISASTER OFFICES:
Note that the all clear has not yet been issued for Saint Lucia and Dominica and therefore full damage assessment has
not been undertaken.

BARBADOS
Barbados continues to be affected by rain. The flood watch was upgraded to a Flood Warning and remains in effect until
6.00pm today

SAINT LUCIA
As of 3.00 pm Hurricane Dean is still affecting Saint Lucia and the all clear has not yet been issued

Deaths:
One death has been reported

Shelters:
Homeless persons are housed in two shelters that were opened on Thursday
22 persons are housed in a shelter that was opened in Dennery on Friday.

Utilities:
Power shut down as a precautionary measure has not been restored due to a number of power lines being down. Due to the
power outage there is no water in the north of the island

Damage:
Four corner shops have been washed out to sea
Several reports received of Roofs blown off houses. The Paediatric Ward of the Hospital lost its roof
Several trees have fallen
Storm Surge damage has been reported in the areas of Gros Islet, Dennery and the Castries Waterfront.

Roads
The road to Vieux Fort has been blocked by fallen trees and utility poles. These are in the process of being cleared.

DOMINICA
As at 3.00pm Hurricane Dean continues to affect Dominica.

Deaths
2 persons lost their lives when their house was swept away in a landslide

Shelters
An estimated 1000 person are in approximately 100 shelters

Utilities
Power has been restored to the capital Roseau but the rest of the island is without electricity
The Potable Water supply has been interrupted
Telephone Service in some of the rural areas is not functioning

Damage
Island wide reports of roof damage received
Approximately twelve reports of landslides reported including one that caused the death of two persons
Roseau River flooded its banks and homes in the Bach Estate are threatened.

Grenada and St. Vincent and the Grenadines have reported minimal damage.

JAMAICA
Jamaica continues to monitor the approach of Dean very closely. A meeting of the National Response Team chaired by the
Prime Minister took place this morning and the North Western Donor Group met this afternoon.

The National Emergency Operations Centre at the Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management is partially
activated and issuing public information to residents. The Parish Disaster Coordinators have all been contacted and
advised to maintain watch.

Regional Response:
The CDERA Coordinating Unit has contacted the Director General at ODPEM in Jamaica and is working to confirm regional
technical support teams to assist the NEOC as necessary.

A second meeting of the Eastern Caribbean Donor Group (ECDG) was convened this morning. Given the preliminary reports
received from Dominica and Saint Lucia, it anticipates a Level One or Level two response. As a result the Rapid Needs
Assessment Teams (RNAT) will not be deployed at this time.

The ECDG also considered the emerging threat to Jamaica and looked at options of providing support to the North Western
Donor Group (NWCDG). .

The Regional Response Mechanism remains on STANDBY.
The Coordinating Unit continues to monitor the impact and threat of Hurricane Dean and stands ready to provide
assistance if required.

Contact Details: The CDERA CU 24hr contact number is 246 425 0386
Posted by:Aug 17th 2007, 08:35:32 pm
KimberlyMIAMI (Reuters) - Hurricane Dean strengthened into an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane on Friday as it crossed the Caribbean Sea toward Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and the Gulf of Mexico beyond it, U.S. forecasters said.

ADVERTISEMENT

In an advisory at 8 p.m. EDT, the Miami-based National Hurricane Center said Dean's top sustained winds had surpassed 130 miles per hour (215 kph) on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale of hurricane intensity.

Category 3 to 5 hurricanes, such as Katrina, Rita and Wilma in the devastating 2005 Atlantic storm season, are potentially the most destructive storms and are collectively referred to as "major" or "intense" by the hurricane center.
Posted by:Aug 17th 2007, 11:30:45 am
Fig Tree News TeamBULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 17 2007

...DEAN MOVING AWAY FROM LESSER ANTILLES AND STRENGTHENING...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MARTINIQUE...DOMINICA... AND GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...BARBUDA...ST. MAARTEN...AND ANGUILLA AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR ST. LUCIA HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM CABO BEATA TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.

AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR HAITI FROM THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 11AM AST...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.6 WEST OR ABOUT 105 MILES... 170 KM...WEST OF MARTINIQUE AND ABOUT 350 MILES...565 KM...SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS TRACK WILL KEEP DEAN OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND DEAN IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 964 MB...28.47 INCHES.

STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM DEAN OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...14.6 N...62.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/MAINELLI
Posted by:Aug 17th 2007, 07:00:27 am
Fig Tree News TeamA large and powerful Hurricane Dean bears down on Caribbean
From The Associated Press

FORT-DE-FRANCE, Martinique -- Airports closed, coastal hotels were evacuated and tourists hunkered down in shelters as powerful Hurricane Dean bore down on the eastern Caribbean.

The first hurricane of the Atlantic season was a large and dangerous storm, packing 100 mph winds late Thursday as it neared the islands of Martinique, Dominica and St. Lucia, where authorities urged people to stay indoors and out of danger.

In a region accustomed to rough weather, islanders stocked up on essentials and taped glass windows but conditions ahead of the storm were deceptively calm and even some locals said it was hard to believe that danger loomed out at sea.

Martinique resident Patrice Labamar who was camping on the beach with his wife and two children waited until the last minute to finally clear out, hoping the forecasters might be wrong about the storm's trajectory.

"Our vacation is over," Labamar said as they headed for safety.

The Category 2 hurricane, which had hovered far out a sea for days, was expected to begin passing over the islands of the Lesser Antilles early Friday, then intensify as it enters the warm waters of the Caribbean -- heading toward Jamaica.

It was too early to tell whether the storm would eventually strike the United States, but officials were gearing up for the possibility of the season's most severe storm yet.

"It's so far out, but it's not too early to start preparing," said Katherine Cesinger, a spokeswoman for Texas Gov. Rick Perry.

St. Lucia's acting prime minister, Stephenson King, announced that the country's two commercial airports were closing Thursday night as the storm's outer bands began moving through the islands. Martinique's main airport was also closed.

"We may not be spared on this occasion as it appears that we are likely to experience the worst," King said.

About 300 American medical students from Dominica's Ross University were stranded at the island's airport Thursday until family members hired private planes, said Dr. Mauricio Gomez, from the UCLA Medical Center in California, whose fiancee was among the students. Most arrived in Puerto Rico to await flights on Friday bound for the United States, Gomez said.

Hotels in Dominica and Martinique moved tourists from seaside rooms.

At the Jungle Bay Resort & Spa, on Dominica's Atlantic coast, about 18 guests spent Thursday night in a reinforced steel-and-concrete shelter, hotel spokeswoman Laura Ell said.

"Everyone's very calm but taking it seriously," she said.

Martinique officials set up cots at schoolhouse shelters while residents lined up at gas stations and emptied supermarket shelves.

"It's the first time I've seen this, all our water supply completely gone in less than two hours," said Jean Claude, a supermarket manager.

The government also canceled commemoration events planned for the 152 Martinique residents who died in a plane crash a year ago.

In St. Lucia, radio and television advisories urged people to stock up on canned food and fill their cars with gasoline. Volunteers knocked on doors to make sure people knew about the storm.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami said Dean would likely be a dangerous Category 3 hurricane by the time it reaches the central Caribbean. Forecasters say it appeared to be heading south of Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands and the Dominican Republic and Haiti, which share the island of Hispaniola.

As it approaches the Mexican resort town of Cancun, on the Yucatan Peninsula, on Tuesday it could be an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane, the hurricane center said.

It predicted storm surge flooding at 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels near the center of Dean as it passes over the Lesser Antilles and total possible rainfalls of 7 inches in mountainous areas.

At 2 a.m. EDT, Dean was centered 85 miles southeast of Martinique and 90 miles northwest of Barbados. It had top sustained winds of 100 mph, up from 90 mph earlier in the day.

Hurricane warnings were in effect for the islands of St. Lucia, Martinique, Dominica and Guadeloupe.

Tropical storm warnings have been issued for the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Antigua and Barbuda, Barbados, Montserrat, St. Kitts and Nevis, Anguilla and St. Maarten, Grenada, St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

Water-logged Texas dealt with the remnants of Tropical Storm Erin, which dropped up to 7 inches of rain in parts of San Antonio and Houston. Officials throughout central and southern Texas braced for the possibility of 10 to 15 inches of rain by Friday morning.

At least two people died Thursday in Erin's thunderstorms.

Shell Oil Co. evacuated 188 people this week from offshore facilities in Erin's path and said Thursday it was already monitoring Dean.
Posted by:Aug 16th 2007, 11:21:27 pm
Fig Tree News TeamHURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
800 PM AST THU AUG 16 2007

...OUTER BANDS OF DEAN MOVING THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF ST. LUCIA...MARTINIQUE...DOMINICA...AND GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ISLAND OF ANGUILLA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...BARBADOS...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS... MONSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...BARBUDA AND ST. MAARTEN.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.

ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE LIKELY LATER THIS EVENING.

INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.8 WEST OR ABOUT 205 MILES...330 KM...EAST OF MARTINIQUE.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF DEAN WILL BE CROSSING THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE THE
HURRICANE REACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES. A WIND GUST OF 58 MPH WAS
RECENTLY REPORTED IN ST. LUCIA IN ONE OF THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF DEAN.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM...FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALLS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...ARE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH DEAN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...14.0 N...57.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BROWN
Posted by:Aug 16th 2007, 02:30:23 pm
Fig Tree News TeamHURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
200 PM AST THU AUG 16 2007

... AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REACHES HURRICANE DEAN...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF DOMINICA AND ST. LUCIA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ISLANDS OF MARTINIQUE... GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE INDICATES THAT A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON FOR MARTINIQUE...GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES... GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...BARBADOS...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS... MONSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...BARBUDA AND ST. MAARTEN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATER TODAY.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.5 WEST OR ABOUT 275 MILES... 440 KM...EAST OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 365 MILES...590 KM...EAST OF MARTINIQUE.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF DEAN WILL BE NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY
OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A NEW STEPPED-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER INSTRUMENT ON BOARD OF THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT JUST MEASURED 90 MPH...150 KM/HR SURFACE WINDS WHILE MAKING ITS FIRST ENTRANCE TO THE HURRICANE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER. DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 41040 INDICATES THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...FROM THE CENTER.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED BY THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALLS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...ARE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH DEAN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION...13.8 N...55.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE

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