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Isabel Storm Updates
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Posted by:Sep 15th 2003, 01:09:11 pm
KristelHURRICANE ISABEL ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST MON SEP 15 2003

...ISABEL SLOWS AND WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISABEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 69.4 WEST OR ABOUT 780 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 505 MILES...815 KM...EAST OF NASSAU.

ISABEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH
...13 KM/HR...AND A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALTHOUGH FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.

LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE GREATER AND LESSER ANTILLES...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE ISLANDS OF THE BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THESE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL ALSO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...25.2 N... 69.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...140 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 945 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Posted by:Sep 15th 2003, 07:38:12 am
KristelHURRICANE ISABEL ADVISORY NUMBER 37 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST MON SEP 15 2003

...INTENSE HURRICANE ISABEL MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISABEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.0 WEST OR ABOUT 820 MILES
...1320 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 525 MILES...845 KM...EAST OF NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS.

ISABEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR... AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY AND ARE NOW NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. AS IS COMMON IN MAJOR
HURRICANES...SOME LUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 205 MILES...335 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 940 MB...27.76 INCHES.

LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE GREATER AND LESSER ANTILLES...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE ISLANDS OF THE BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THESE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL ALSO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...24.8 N... 69.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...150 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 940 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST.

FORECASTER BEVEN
Posted by:Sep 14th 2003, 07:23:20 pm
KristelHURRICANE ISABEL ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST SUN SEP 14 2003

...DANGEROUS ISABEL REMAINS JUST BELOW CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF MAJOR HURRICANE ISABEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.4 WEST OR ABOUT 320 MILES...515 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

ISABEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS RECENTLY REPORTED BY NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REMAIN NEAR 155 MPH...250
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES ISABEL A STRONG CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE...AND JUST BELOW
CATEGORY 5 INTENSITY. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES...160 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTERS IS 933 MB...27.55 INCHES.

LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE GREATER AND LESSER ANTILLES...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE ISLANDS OF THE BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THESE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL ALSO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...24.1 N... 67.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...155 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 933 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 PM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART
Posted by:Sep 14th 2003, 06:41:03 pm
Fig Tree News TeamLARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE GREATER AND LESSER ANTILLES...THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...AND THE ISLANDS OF THE BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THESE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL ALSO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...24.1 N... 67.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...155 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 933 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 PM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART
Posted by:Sep 13th 2003, 06:01:06 pm
Fig Tree News TeamHurricane Isabel Nears Atlantic Coast [5:00p EST - Saturday]

By ERIK SCHELZIG, Associated Press Writer

MIAMI - Hurricane Isabel's sustained winds increased to 160 mph Saturday as the Category 5 hurricane swirled ominously closer to the Atlantic Coast.

The hurricane had earlier been lowered to a Category 4 storm after its sustained winds fell to 150 mph. It was reclassified after a hurricane hunter plane flew into the eye to measure its intensity Saturday afternoon. A hurricane hits the top of the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale when its winds reach 156 mph.

The slow-moving, powerful storm was still several days from land, and forecasters were unsure if it would strike the United States. However, computer models predicted it would turn toward Georgia and the Carolinas over the next five days.

"It's not definite, but things are looking more ominous than yesterday for the East Coast," National Hurricane Center (news - web sites) meteorologist Eric Blake said Saturday.

At 11 a.m. EDT, Isabel's maximum wind speed was 150 mph, down from 160 mph earlier in the week. A storm becomes a Category 5 hurricane, the top level of the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale, when its winds reach 156 mph.

Isabel was centered about 405 miles northeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico, Saturday morning and was moving west at 10 mph. Forecasters expected it to continue that movement until Sunday afternoon.

Large ocean swells and dangerous surf conditions were forecast for the Leeward Islands in the northeastern Caribbean. And the U.S. State Department issued a travel warning Friday advising tourists to avoid the Bahamas because of the storm.

The National Hurricane Center's five-day forecast for Isabel put the hurricane roughly 420 miles east of the Georgia-South Carolina border early Thursday, if it makes a predicted turn to the northwest. But hurricanes can be unpredictable, and long-range forecasts have large possibilities for error.

Forecasters said Hurricane Isabel could still strike anywhere from north Florida to Virginia, and officials warned East Coast residents to be alert. They expected to know more about the potential direction of the storm late this weekend.

"If you've been lax with your hurricane preparations, now's a really good time to catch up," Blake said.

Some residents along the East Coast were taking that advice, buying water, plywood and other supplies just in case Isabel made landfall. National Guard officials in the Southeast said enough troops were ready to help if necessary, despite mobilizations in Iraq (news - web sites) and other parts of the world.

Water management officials in Florida were also worried about some of the already-swollen rivers and lakes because a direct hit from a hurricane could cause severe flooding.

The last Atlantic hurricane to develop into a Category 5 storm was Mitch in 1998, which killed about 11,000 people in Central America.

The last two Category 5 hurricanes to strike the U.S. coast were Andrew in 1992 and Camille in 1969. Andrew, still the most expensive natural disaster in U.S. history with a $30 billion damage toll, tore through south Florida and Louisiana, killing 43 people. Camille killed 143 on the Gulf Coast and 113 in Virginia flooding.

The Atlantic hurricane season began June 1 and ends Nov. 30.
Posted by:Sep 13th 2003, 12:06:07 am
Fig Tree News TeamFrom hurricane.accuweather.com:

Today's Discussion
POSTED: September 12, 2003 11:35 p.m.

Extremely dangerous Hurricane Isabel continues to move west across the Atlantic Ocean. As of 11 p.m. AST Thursday evening, the center of Hurricane Isabel was located near 21.8 north and 59.5 west or 320 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. With maximum sustained winds of 160 mph and gusts to 195 mph, Isabel is a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. This is the first Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic Basin since Hurricane Mitch in 1998.

Isabel is moving to the west at around 9 mph, and this general track is expected to continue through Saturday morning. Isabel is currently undergoing eyewall replacement. It currently has two eye walls according the last hurricane hunter aircraft. When this happens a hurricane usually weakens because the the large outer eye wall. Over about a 36 hour period of time the hurricane will end up with one eye wall. If that eye wall contracts the pressure will fall again and the hurricane strengthens. We will have to see if this happens with Isabel. The forecasting of weakening and strengthening of a hurricane is very difficult and most attempts are unsuccessful.

So, Isabel is expected to weaken some during the next 24-36 hours. The hurricane will also be crossing the old path that Fabian took several days ago. The water churned up from Fabian is cooler and that cooler water over several miles could also cause Isabel to weaken some. This weakening process might allow the hurricane to sense the weakness in the Atlantic high pressure ridge to the north. That will allow the hurricane to move on a more west northwest track later on Saturday. This track and forward speed means Isabel will pass north of the Leeward Islands during Saturday and pass well north of Puerto Rico Saturday night. The hurricane should be north of the Dominican Republic by early Monday.

On Tuesday, we expect it will be east of the Bahamas. The main synoptic features that will play a role in the track of Isabel are the western Atlantic high pressure ridge now nosing into New England, and an upper level trough that will approach the eastern U.S.late in the weekend and early next week. A weakening of the western Atlantic ridge in the next couple of days will cause the hurricane to move on a west-northwest and even northwest track. If that does not occur, the storm track will probably be farther south. Either way, Isabel is still several days away from affecting the U.S. mainland.

The area of low pressure east of the North Carolina coastline is the remnants of Tropical Storm Henri. With high pressure building to the north of it, this low will continue to move north toward the northern Outer Banks and the Virginia coast through Saturday. There is no indication that this feature will be able to become an organized tropical system. However, there will be nor'easter conditions from the northern Outer Banks up into the mid-Atlantic tonight and tomorrow. (i.e. wind, rain and pounding of beaches). A tropical wave is located along 91 west, south of 20 north. However, the system has become much weaker and most of the shower and thunderstorms associated with it are affecting parts of Central America.

In the eastern Atlantic, a tropical wave is located along 42 west, south of 16 north. This has little convection associated with it. Another tropical wave has just moved off the African coast and is located at about 20 west and south of 15 north.

Atlantic Hurricane Maps
Click on an Atlantic storm name to see current weather forecasts and graphics, or storm histories for past storms.
Posted by:Sep 12th 2003, 03:30:02 pm
KimberlyBULLETIN
HURRICANE ISABEL ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
3 PM EST FRI SEP 12 2003

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE ISABEL CONTINUES ON A WESTWARD
TRACK...

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE ISABEL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.0 WEST OR ABOUT 455 MILES...730
KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

ISABEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH ...15 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME TEMPORARY WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY.
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 921 MB...27.20 INCHES.

LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO
RICO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...21.7 N... 57.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 921 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM AST.

FORECASTER AVILA
Posted by:Sep 12th 2003, 11:51:26 am
KristelAT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISABEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.8 WEST OR ABOUT 370
MILES...600 KM...NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

ISABEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES ISABEL A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES. NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
WILL INVESTIGATE ISABEL THIS AFTERNOON.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 924 MB...27.29 INCHES.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST.

FORECASTER BEVEN
Posted by:Sep 12th 2003, 07:14:47 am
Kristel...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE ISABEL CONTINUES ON A WESTWARD TRACK...

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE ISABEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.0 WEST OR ABOUT 455 MILES...730
KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

ISABEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH ...15 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME TEMPORARY WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY.
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 921 MB...27.20 INCHES.

LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO
RICO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...21.7 N... 57.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 921 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM AST.

FORECASTER AVILA
Posted by:Sep 11th 2003, 09:10:44 pm
KimberlyHere's a good chart, sent in by Don Savage: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT13/refresh/AL1303W5+GIF/111458W5.gif
Posted by:Sep 11th 2003, 09:02:24 pm
Kristel...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS ISABEL NOW AT CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT HURRICANE ISABEL HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN...AND HAS REACHED CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. ISABEL IS THE FIRST CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN SINCE MITCH OF 1998.

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISABEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 55.3 WEST OR ABOUT 500 MILES...805 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLAND.

ISABEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 921 MB...27.20 INCHES.

LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...21.6 N... 55.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...160 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 921 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST.

FORECASTER PASCH
Posted by:Sep 11th 2003, 08:30:33 pm
chapelHurricanes.net Tropical Alert
http://www.hurricanes.net

HURRICANE ISABEL has attained CATEGORY 5 strength. This means that the storm has sustained winds of 160MPH and is capable of "catastrophic" damage. This situation is very rare. Visit http://www.hurricanes.net for the latest information.

Coordinates: http://www.hurricanes.net/content/atlantictrac/storm-3/coords.asp

Forecast Path: http://www.hurricanes.net/content/atlantictrac/storm-3/fcstpath.asp

NHC Discussion: http://www.hurricanes.net/content/atlantictrac/storm-3/stc-discuss.php

This and MUCH more info at http://www.hurricanes.net
Posted by:Sep 11th 2003, 04:33:11 pm
Fig Tree News TeamBULLETIN
HURRICANE ISABEL ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST THU SEP 11 2003

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS ISABEL NOW AT CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT HURRICANE ISABEL HAS CONTINUED TO
STRENGTHEN...AND HAS REACHED CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. ISABEL IS THE FIRST CATEGORY FIVE
HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN SINCE MITCH OF 1998.

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISABEL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 55.3 WEST OR ABOUT 500
MILES...805 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLAND.

ISABEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 921 MB...27.20 INCHES.

LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO
RICO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...21.6 N... 55.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...160 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 921 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST.

FORECASTER PASCH
Posted by:Sep 11th 2003, 11:35:53 am
chapelBULLETIN
HURRICANE ISABEL ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST THU SEP 11 2003

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE ISABEL CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISABEL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 54.5 WEST OR ABOUT 535
MILES...865 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

ISABEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR NEAR 150 MPH...240
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE COMMON IN
MAJOR HURRICANES AND THESE COULD OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 930 MB...27.46 INCHES.

LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO
RICO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...21.4 N... 54.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...150 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 930 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST.

FORECASTER PASCH
Posted by:Sep 11th 2003, 11:04:22 am
ClarissaTeasher, Tinka and ALexis, Y'all take care of yourselves if Isabel hits.. please.... I am watching it as well... All the best clarissa
Posted by:Sep 11th 2003, 01:04:20 am
Fig Tree News Team11 PM AST WED SEP 10 2003

...ISABEL STRENGTHENS SOME MORE...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISABEL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 52.8 WEST OR ABOUT 1180
MILES...1895 KM...EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

ISABEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH ...17 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...HOWEVER...FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN
MAJOR HURRICANES.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 935 MB...27.61 INCHES.

LARGE OCEAN SWELLS MAY CREATE HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS IN THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...21.1 N... 52.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...145 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 935 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
Posted by:Sep 10th 2003, 04:48:45 pm
chapelIsabel remains a Cat 4 storm, and continues on a westerly track that could eventually allow it to threaten the Bahamas and the U.S. Isabel has had a significant northward component to its track over the past few days, but a strengthening ridge of high pressue near Bermuda finally forced the hurricane to turn due westward on Tuesday night. Isabel is also moving a little faster than earlier forecasts had indicated.

Any impact to the Bahamas is expected to materialize until late Sunday or Monday at the earliest. Please note that 5-day h'cane forecasts have an average error of more than 200 miles.

If you'd like to help out with posting these hurricane forecasts to the Briland.com board, please let Kimberly know at your earliest convenience. She'll be in France 14-30 September, and away from constant e-mail access, and any assistance keeping Briland.com readers up to date would be much appreciated.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ISABEL ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST WED SEP 10 2003

...DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ISABEL STRENGTHENS...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF INTENSE HURRICANE ISABEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.9 WEST OR ABOUT
685 MILES ...1100 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

ISABEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...WITH POSSIBLE FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
AFTERWARDS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 942 MB...27.82 INCHES.

LARGE OCEAN SWELLS...CREATING HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS...WILL BEGIN
TO AFFECT THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY THURSDAY.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...21.2 N... 51.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...140 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 942 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 PM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART
Posted by:Sep 10th 2003, 12:39:15 pm
Fig Tree News TeamBULLETIN
HURRICANE ISABEL ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST WED SEP 10 2003

...DANGEROUS ISABEL BEGINS TO MOVE WESTWARD ...

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISABEL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.2 WEST OR ABOUT 785
MILES...1265 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

ISABEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH ...22 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN MAJOR
HURRICANES.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...20.9 N... 50.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 948 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM AST.

FORECASTER AVILA
Posted by:Sep 9th 2003, 05:14:49 pm
Fig Tree News TeamHURRICANE ISABEL ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST TUE SEP 09 2003

...ISABEL REMAINS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISABEL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.8 WEST OR ABOUT 930
MILES...1495 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

ISABEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST EXPECTED AFTERWARDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS...MAKING ISABEL A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...20.3 N... 47.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 948 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 PM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART
Posted by:Sep 9th 2003, 12:16:47 pm
chapelBULLETIN
HURRICANE ISABEL ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST TUE SEP 09 2003

...CATEGORY 4 ISABEL GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISABEL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.9 WEST OR ABOUT 980 MILES
...1580 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

ISABEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST EXPECTED AFTERWARDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS...MAKING ISABEL A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME SLIGHT ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...19.6 N... 46.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 948 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5 PM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART

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