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Hurricane Frances Now A Category Two, On Track For Bahamas
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Page 1 of 1Total of 6 messages
Posted by:Aug 31st 2004, 11:31:59 am
chapel"A long week ahead."

WEATHER
Frances a threat to East Coast of Florida
Hurricane Frances poses an escalating threat to Florida's East Coast, experts said, with landfall possible this weekend.
BY MARTIN MERZER
mmerzer@herald.com

Hurricane Frances fluctuated in intensity Monday but remained extremely powerful and on track to possibly collide with Florida's East Coast by the end of the week.

The long-range forecast, subject to considerable error, called for landfall around Vero Beach at midday Saturday as a major Category 3 hurricane with 120-mph winds.

Experts repeatedly emphasized, however, that the track and intensity forecasts were likely to change over the next few days -- and that everyone in South Florida and elsewhere along the coast must begin preparing now.

''The entire Florida peninsula needs to take Hurricane Frances very seriously,'' Max Mayfield, director of the National Hurricane Center in Miami-Dade, said Monday night.

He and other experts urged everyone in the hurricane zone not to draw false security from the center line of a long-term forecast track.

''It is extremely important not to focus on the exact track, especially at 96 and 120 hours, because the hurricane is not a point and forecasts at these extended time ranges can easily have errors of several hundred miles,'' forecaster Richard Pasch said.

Emergency managers and other public officials began taking notice.

Broward County officials urged residents to monitor weather reports and begin assembling -- as a precaution -- storm supplies such as water, canned food, cash and battery-powered radios.

Carlos Castillo, Miami-Dade's emergency management director, said he was planning to elevate the Emergency Operations Center to full staffing by Thursday, again as a precaution.

''We are keeping a close eye on this, and everyone else should,'' Castillo said. ``There's still plenty of time to get ready. Don't panic, but start getting ready now.''

As Frances rolled just north of the Caribbean islands, forecasters issued watches and warnings for many islands, including Puerto Rico and portions of Hispaniola, that could be touched by the storm's outlying squalls.

They said Frances, a Category 3 hurricane on the five-level Saffir-Simpson scale, was expected to regain its Category 4 status.

Scientists said they believed that a high-pressure ridge that extends westward across the Atlantic -- pushing Frances toward the coast -- might have weak spots that will allow it to curve toward the north before it strikes Florida. But that might not be known for certain until Thursday or Friday.

''Long week ahead,'' Mayfield said.

Herald staff writers Sam Nitze and Bob Radziewicz contributed to this report.
Posted by:Aug 30th 2004, 01:15:55 am
chapelStorm 2004.com, evening update:

Frances News --
Powerful Hurricane Frances moves closer to Caribbean islands

MIAMI Hurricane Frances weakened into a Category 3 hurricane as it slowly pushed closer to the northern Caribbean with 125-mph winds Sunday, resulting in several hurricane watches and tropical storm warnings.

At 11 p.m. EDT, tropical storm warnings were issued for St. Maarten, Anguilla, Barbuda, Antigua, Nevis, St. Kitts, St. Eustatius and Saba. Forecasters said St. Martin and St. Barthelemy may also be threatened. A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the next 24 hours.

A hurricane watch was issued for the British and northern U.S. Virgin Islands, including St. Thomas, St. John and the surrounding islands, and for the islands of Culebra and Vieques. A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within 36 hours.
Posted by:Aug 29th 2004, 10:26:34 pm
DonThe latest update has the same track, just a slighty latter arrival at Harbour Island...now it has the "eye" there a 2:00 PM Friday.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT06/refresh/AL0604W5+GIF/280853W5.gif


Part of me wants to think it's not bad to show a "direct hit" 5 days out, since they're never "right on" with their forcasts...is that just wishful thinking.
Posted by:Aug 29th 2004, 06:29:08 pm
DonHere is one scarey web page:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT06/refresh/AL0604W5+GIF/280853W5.gif

In case you can't pull it up, it shows Frances' track to be right over Harbour Island at 8:00 am Friday...and the last Weather Channel report had it at a Category 4 with the possibility of going to Category 5...let's hope they're all wrong.
Posted by:Aug 29th 2004, 06:28:54 pm
BaynmurrayThe US Navy is predicting Frances in down town Briland Friday, Sept. 3rd.
https://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/home1.html
Posted by:Aug 28th 2004, 05:33:34 pm
Fig Tree News TeamHURRICANE FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST SAT AUG 28 2004

...FRANCES STRENGTHENS INTO THE SECOND CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE OF
THE 2004 ATLANTIC SEASON...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS ON SUNDAY.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES AND THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FRANCES OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.6 WEST OR ABOUT 690
MILES...1110 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND FRANCES COULD REACH NEAR
CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY ON SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...17.9 N... 52.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 948 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 PM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART

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